Since the new government in Pakistan has taken charge after the May 11, 2013 elections, a lot has been said and discussed about possibility of negotiations with the extremist and militant outfits. The government of Pakistan called an All Parties Conference to discuss this issue a few months back and on January 29, 2014, finally announced a four member committee to hold negotiations with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is the largest umbrella organization of the militants.
But it has not been a smooth ride since then. As soon the government of Pakistan announced negotiations with the TTP, the people of Pakistan witnessed an unusually high number of attacks all over the country with the exception of the province of Punjab which is the stronghold of the ruling party PMLN. The attacks were especially targeted more towards the police forces and armed forces personnel.
February has been a nerve wrecking month for the entire Pakistani nation as no one seems to have the answer as to why the government is so hesitant to announce a military operation against the militants despite such increase in the intensity and frequency of attacks by the militants which could eventually result in decrease in popularity of the PMLN government.
The first reason for the hesitancy of the government in launching an operation against the TTP could be the bitter past experiences of the military operation of 1992 by the PMLN government. After winning the elections with a thumping majority, The PMLN announced a military operation against some mafias in the province of Sind with full support of its allies in Sind especially the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (then called Muhajir Qaumi Movement). But later on, the operation mysteriously changed its direction and there was brutal use of force against MQM with extra judicial killings of thousands of its workers. It resulted in separation of the MQM from government which eventually led to the fall of the government and new elections in the year 1993 in which PMLN lost to the Pakistan People Party (PPP). Till date, the armed forces and the PMLN government blame each other for this operation against the MQM and there is no clarity over the mysterious change in direction of that operation.
Perhaps PMLN government this time is being too careful while launching the operation against the TTP, even more so because the TTP has very deep roots in the province of Punjab which is a strong hold of the ruling party. Once the operation is announced, the government would not be in a position to dictate to the forces on the direction of the operation. Moreover, the short history of Pakistan is witness to the fact that such operations have never been indiscriminate and the armed forces have always used such opportunities for their own motives to target specific groups and communities. So the hesitancy of the PMLN government makes a lot of sense if one recalls the way most of such operations have been carried out in the past.
The second possible reason for the apprehension of the PMLN government about this operation could be its extremely close ties with the Arab countries. Since the formation of this government, Pakistan has distanced itself from the Iran-Pakistan natural gas pipe line project and has shown a lot of interest in importing energy in various forms from Arab countries. Furthermore, there has been an unusually high exchange of visits between dignitaries from Pakistan and Arab countries. Keeping in mind that the biggest source of funding to the religious militant organizations operating in Pakistan is from the Arab countries and that the present government has very strong ties with these governments, it becomes very clear that the PMLN government must be under tremendous pressure to delay this operation for as long as possible.
The third possible reason could be the fear of a serious backlash against the government as soon as the military operation is announced. Not so long ago, the same TTP has been involved in the tragic assassination of the former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Religious groups in Pakistan have a very strong presence in the province of Punjab and especially the city of Rai Wind, where the residence of the Prime Minister is located. Rumors are that the present government has had some sort of under hand pacts and understanding with the militant organizations for many years which has resulted in the fact that the province of Punjab has been relatively safe from militant attacks with a few exceptions. Over all, the militants have been very harsh on the province of KPK, Baluchistan and Karachi, the port city of Pakistan.
Despite all these reservations, the PMLN government must fully be aware that it is running out of time. The terrorist activities of the extremist militant organizations has been devastating for the economy and rapidly resulting in isolation of Pakistan from rest of the world. The government cannot really afford to stay confused on this issue anymore. The current situation suggests that even if the government is unable to sign a deal or peace accord with the militants any time soon, the time for the military operation would soon be lost too and the battle would be over even before it has started.
